Monday, January 7, 2013

A Case for Javale: Let the man shoot!

Below you will find an hour-long g-chat conversation about the strategy of having an NBA center take an end-of-quarter three pointer. It was based on thisvideo, but my conscience won’t let me post something that makes Javale look good, lest the casual reader see it and think he’s a good basketball player.  So I’m compelled to share thisother video with you as well. Enjoy.

Sent at 10:06 AM on Wednesday
Paul:  btw did you see javale's three and subsequent celebration last night
Sent at 11:14 AM on Wednesday
me:  hahaha no
i'll look it up
Paul:  boy was it funny
Sent at 11:23 AM on Wednesday
me:  haha what the eff was he doing?
also, that play was clearly just "it's the end of the quarter we're up 13 it's the regular season who gives two craps"
and finally...his form isnt terrible, right?
Paul:  apparently
at nevada, he was a 33% three-point shooter his last year
on a not-too-tiny 42 attempts
me:  yeah. he had a follow through at least?
he may make my "people i like to watch shoot" column
Paul:  hahaha
he is actually shooting free throws better this year
honestly though ive always thought that was an underrated end of quarter play
who really has a better shot at making a 3
ray allen fading away from 27 feet with two guys contesting
or a completely wide open center
Sent at 11:29 AM on Wednesday
me:  ray allen
but not by a lot
Paul:  haha i disagree
me:  how many threes do you think dwight howard makes out of 100
Paul:  25
me:  NO WAY
Paul:  absolutely
me:  nope
Paul:  completely unguarded?
me:  yeah like in practice
Paul:  yeah
me:  bogus
not the same as dogus
but...he barely makes that many free throws
Sent at 11:33 AM on Wednesday
Paul:  exhibit a: timofey mosgov
Sent at 11:35 AM on Wednesday
me:  a) some centers will be better than others for sure
b) a corner three is much different than the top of the key
c) i still don't think dwight makes more than 10. same goes for noah.
Paul:  statistically its 3.5% different
me:  not for a center with crappy shooting form
Paul:  your analysis is flawed
me:  here's my analysis
dwight howard has no shooting form
therefore he can't make shots where he has to use shooting form
Paul:  i would bet you $100 dollars he makes more than 10
me:  if there were a way to settle that bet
i'd take it if the line was 17
Sent at 11:38 AM on Wednesday
dwight easily cashes 3 in a row here
id do it if the line was 17 as well
Sent at 11:39 AM on Wednesday
me:  no more of this corner 3 crap
teams don't leave that unguarded
if we're shooting from the top of the key area i'd rather have ray allen curl off a screen like he has for his entire career
Paul:  i say if you give him 100 you should get 20 at each of the 5 stations
me:  than have dwight "t-rex arm shot" shoot
Paul:  even if he cashes a highly conservative 12 from the corners he still only has to make 6-60 from the other 3 spots
its all about repetition
and the thing is, teams just don't leave ray allen open when there's 2 seconds left on the clock
that was more of my point anyway
me:  if the play is to let the center shoot a wide open three, you don't get that from the corner
so i don't think you get to shoot there
and i know teams don't leave him open. but i'd still take him
over most centers
not ibaka
not mosgov (i like his form)
Paul:  id like to see a points per possession breakdown when there are 3, 2 and 1 seconds left on the shot clock
almost guaranteed its .6 or less
meaning your center only has to shoot 21% to do better
me:  ok. well going with your made up statistics...i think most centers shoot less than that from the top of the key
perkins? haha
Paul:  no way
me:  deandre jordan
unguarded. but in a game
does this include the 4th quarter?
if you're down 3 with 2 seconds you'd rather your center shoot than ray allen?\
Paul:  i wasnt necessarily referring to the 4th quarter
but honestly
me:  you're wack
Paul:  it is a perfectly decent second option
me:  haha well that isn't the same thing
but ok
Paul:  i think for the first 3 quarters its surprisingly brilliant
and if teams know its in your arsenal, then maybe ray allen does get kindof open
me:  so ray allen is on the heat
Paul:  also i would contend there's not a player in the league who doesn't make 18 out of 100 threes completely unguarded
from anywhere
me:  well that's a much more difficult bet to both assess and for you to win
Sent at 11:50 AM on Wednesday
me:  thabeet? turiaf? joel anthony? kwame brown?
you can get this shot almost 100% of the time
haha thabeet
maybe not thabeet
me:  you know how much blake worked on his shooting this off season?
Paul:  this video is 2 years old!
me:  exactly!
he had good form. there are ppl with turbs form
that was a gross sentence
Paul:  here's a team giving up a corner 3 to somebody with "turbs form"
this happens more than you think
this is a playoff game
me:  thats more guarded than the other two
and his elbow is in line with his body and he follows through
Paul:  camby's not good
that's a tough argument
me:  dude that shot looks like kobe's when he's rotating
which...isn't exactly how you want your shot to be described
but is better than "it looks like joahkim noah's"
Paul:  shawn marion's shot also looks like noahs
its about repetition
me:  thats fine. i'll take the...i can't even come up with an appropriate number here...1,000 reps/day in ray allen's life over the 20 dwight occasionally takes while farting around in practice
Paul:  ok
thats also fine
me:  we should probably copy that whole thing and just post it
Paul:  that comparison is between the best shooter in the last 15 years and dwight effing howard
me:  you brought up ray allen!
Paul:  yeah
me:  set the bar pretty high
Paul:  so one team has ray allen and one team has howard
me:  i'd take kobe
Paul:  probably 25 teams don't have as good a shooter or as bad a shooting center
me:  hmmm
Paul:  id take jamal crawford
me:  or cp3
id take kd
Paul:  yep
me:  although if it was ibaka
i'd think about it in the first and third quarters
Paul:  exactly though! still not a bad shot
me:  but not in the 4th
Paul:  also keep in mind the coach has the ability to sub in a good shooting big man in these situations
me:  i don't think it works if you put in a "good shooting big man"
i mean it worked with javale and blake because they were bad shooters
so no one cared to guard them
if you just pop a guy into the game who is known as a good shooter why is he left open?
unless it's a pick and pop with another shooter?
Paul:  not a "good shooter" but the guy who is the best at garbage time practice three pointers
think cole aldrich
you know he practices that crap on the daily
i dont really have time to do this but we could go team by team and i bet at least 20 you would rather a big man taking an uncontested 3
Sent at 12:02 PM on Wednesday
me:  in the first through third quarters
i'll look at it in a while hah
and also i may copy and paste all that into a doc
Paul:  thats fine
i may write a post about the whole ordeal and i can include quotes from you
because i think its a great call at least in the first through third quarters
as you say
Sent at 12:05 PM on Wednesday
me:  haha ok
that exchange was actually pretty funny
Paul:  you have to admit the mosgov video surprised you a little
also dwight apparently shoots 80+% FTs in practice
me:  i will finish with the point that if they would make more than 20 because "it's all about repetition"...then you should want the person shooting at the end of the game who has taken the most threes int he game right?
Paul:  no, because that person will be covered
a defense can usually cover the best player for 2 seconds
me:  but then the center won't be in the same rhythm that allowed them to shoot 25% in practice
Paul:  i think its largely mental
some centers probably would not do well
some probably would
me:  ok
how awesome was Pitch Perfect?

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