Below you
will find an hour-long g-chat conversation about the strategy of having an NBA
center take an end-of-quarter three pointer. It was based on thisvideo, but my conscience won’t let me post something that makes Javale
look good, lest the casual reader see it and think he’s a good basketball
player. So I’m compelled to share thisother video with you as well. Enjoy.
Sent
at 10:06 AM on Wednesday
Paul:
btw did you see javale's three and subsequent celebration last night
Sent
at 11:14 AM on Wednesday
me:
hahaha no
i'll look it
up
Paul:
boy was it funny
Sent
at 11:23 AM on Wednesday
me:
haha what the eff was he doing?
also, that
play was clearly just "it's the end of the quarter we're up 13 it's the
regular season who gives two craps"
and
finally...his form isnt terrible, right?
Paul:
apparently
at nevada, he
was a 33% three-point shooter his last year
on a
not-too-tiny 42 attempts
me:
yeah. he had a follow through at least?
he may make
my "people i like to watch shoot" column
haha
Paul:
hahaha
he is
actually shooting free throws better this year
honestly
though ive always thought that was an underrated end of quarter play
who really
has a better shot at making a 3
ray allen
fading away from 27 feet with two guys contesting
or a
completely wide open center
Sent at 11:29
AM on Wednesday
but not by a
lot
haha
Paul:
haha i disagree
me:
how many threes do you think dwight howard makes out of 100
Paul:
25
me:
NO WAY
Paul:
absolutely
me:
nope
Paul:
completely unguarded?
me:
yeah like in practice
Paul:
yeah
25
me:
bogus
not the same
as dogus
but...he
barely makes that many free throws
Sent
at 11:33 AM on Wednesday
Paul:
exhibit a: timofey mosgov
Sent
at 11:35 AM on Wednesday
me:
a) some centers will be better than others for sure
b) a corner
three is much different than the top of the key
c) i still
don't think dwight makes more than 10. same goes for noah.
Paul:
statistically its 3.5% different
me:
not for a center with crappy shooting form
Paul:
your analysis is flawed
me:
here's my analysis
dwight howard
has no shooting form
therefore he
can't make shots where he has to use shooting form
Paul:
i would bet you $100 dollars he makes more than 10
me:
if there were a way to settle that bet
i'd take it
if the line was 17
Sent
at 11:38 AM on Wednesday
dwight easily
cashes 3 in a row here
id do it if
the line was 17 as well
Sent
at 11:39 AM on Wednesday
me:
no more of this corner 3 crap
teams don't
leave that unguarded
if we're
shooting from the top of the key area i'd rather have ray allen curl off a
screen like he has for his entire career
Paul:
i say if you give him 100 you should get 20 at each of the 5 stations
me:
than have dwight "t-rex arm shot" shoot
Paul:
even if he cashes a highly conservative 12 from the corners he still
only has to make 6-60 from the other 3 spots
its all about
repetition
and the thing
is, teams just don't leave ray allen open when there's 2 seconds left on the
clock
that was more
of my point anyway
me:
if the play is to let the center shoot a wide open three, you don't get
that from the corner
so i don't think
you get to shoot there
and i know
teams don't leave him open. but i'd still take him
over most
centers
not ibaka
not mosgov (i
like his form)
Paul:
id like to see a points per possession breakdown when there are 3, 2 and
1 seconds left on the shot clock
almost
guaranteed its .6 or less
meaning your
center only has to shoot 21% to do better
me:
ok. well going with your made up statistics...i think most centers shoot
less than that from the top of the key
perkins? haha
Paul:
no way
me:
deandre jordan
unguarded.
but in a game
does this
include the 4th quarter?
if you're
down 3 with 2 seconds you'd rather your center shoot than ray allen?\
Paul:
i wasnt necessarily referring to the 4th quarter
but honestly
me:
you're wack
Paul:
it is a perfectly decent second option
me:
haha well that isn't the same thing
but ok
Paul:
i think for the first 3 quarters its surprisingly brilliant
and if teams
know its in your arsenal, then maybe ray allen does get kindof open
me:
so ray allen is on the heat
Paul:
also i would contend there's not a player in the league who doesn't make
18 out of 100 threes completely unguarded
from anywhere
me:
well that's a much more difficult bet to both assess and for you to win
Sent
at 11:50 AM on Wednesday
me:
thabeet? turiaf? joel anthony? kwame brown?
you can get
this shot almost 100% of the time
haha thabeet
maybe not
thabeet
me:
you know how much blake worked on his shooting this off season?
Paul:
this video is 2 years old!
me:
exactly!
he had good
form. there are ppl with turbs form
that was a
gross sentence
Paul:
here's a team giving up a corner 3 to somebody with "turbs
form"
this happens
more than you think
this is a
playoff game
me:
thats more guarded than the other two
and his elbow
is in line with his body and he follows through
Paul:
camby's form...is not good
that's a
tough argument
me:
dude that shot looks like kobe's when he's rotating
which...isn't
exactly how you want your shot to be described
but is better
than "it looks like joahkim noah's"
Paul:
shawn marion's shot also looks like noahs
its about
repetition
me:
thats fine. i'll take the...i can't even come up with an appropriate number
here...1,000 reps/day in ray allen's life over the 20 dwight occasionally takes
while farting around in practice
Paul:
ok
thats also
fine
me:
we should probably copy that whole thing and just post it
Paul:
that comparison is between the best shooter in the last 15 years and
dwight effing howard
me:
you brought up ray allen!
Paul:
yeah
me:
set the bar pretty high
Paul:
so one team has ray allen and one team has howard
me:
i'd take kobe
Paul:
probably 25 teams don't have as good a shooter or as bad a shooting
center
me:
hmmm
Paul:
id take jamal crawford
me:
or cp3
id take kd
Paul:
yep
me:
although if it was ibaka
i'd think
about it in the first and third quarters
Paul:
exactly though! still not a bad shot
me:
but not in the 4th
Paul:
also keep in mind the coach has the ability to sub in a good shooting
big man in these situations
me:
i don't think it works if you put in a "good shooting big man"
i mean
it worked with javale and blake because they were bad shooters
so no one
cared to guard them
if you just
pop a guy into the game who is known as a good shooter why is he left open?
unless it's a
pick and pop with another shooter?
Paul:
not a "good shooter" but the guy who is the best at garbage time
practice three pointers
think cole
aldrich
you know he
practices that crap on the daily
i dont really
have time to do this but we could go team by team and i bet at least 20 you
would rather a big man taking an uncontested 3
Sent
at 12:02 PM on Wednesday
me:
in the first through third quarters
i'll look at
it in a while hah
and also i
may copy and paste all that into a doc
Paul:
thats fine
i may write a
post about the whole ordeal and i can include quotes from you
because i
think its a great call at least in the first through third quarters
as you say
Sent
at 12:05 PM on Wednesday
me:
haha ok
that exchange
was actually pretty funny
Paul:
you have to admit the mosgov video surprised you a little
also dwight
apparently shoots 80+% FTs in practice
me:
i will finish with the point that if they would make more than 20
because "it's all about repetition"...then you should want the person
shooting at the end of the game who has taken the most threes int he game
right?
Paul:
no, because that person will be covered
a defense can
usually cover the best player for 2 seconds
me:
but then the center won't be in the same rhythm that allowed them to
shoot 25% in practice
Paul:
i think its largely mental
some
centers probably would not do well
some
probably would
me:
ok
unrelated
how awesome was Pitch Perfect?
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