Javale Making it Rain...on the basketball court

I thoroughly enjoyed the G-chat between Jack and Paul where they contemplated which was a better end of quarter strategy with 3 seconds or less left - having your best shooter try a contested 25 footer, or your center (or other worst shooter that would be uncovered in that situation) shoot a wide open 3?

I'm here to address this argument. My first thought was "no effing way Dwight Howard or any other center should ever get a look from 3." Luckily, I have data to make my opinion for me! Using Pro Basketball Reference's shot finder, I found the expected value of just the situation that Paul described. I limited it to all 3's taken in the first three quarters (because only Vinny Del Negro would run a play like this at the end of the game) of games last season, where there was 3 seconds or less left in the quarter. I also filtered by shots inside 30 feet to exclude half courters and other obviously low percentage shots.