Western Conference Predictions

Yesterday we took the time to examine the Eastern Conference first round match-ups. Today, we look at the much more exciting because there's more than one good team Western Conference playoff picture. Like yesterday, you'll find all you need to know, or at least a couple of facts that are probably true (since that's the nature of facts), and then our tweetable predictions will follow.  Hopefully we win you a lot of money in your office pool.

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Houston Rockets

This gif comes from Business Insider. That's not a joke.

Javale Making it Rain...on the basketball court

I thoroughly enjoyed the G-chat between Jack and Paul where they contemplated which was a better end of quarter strategy with 3 seconds or less left - having your best shooter try a contested 25 footer, or your center (or other worst shooter that would be uncovered in that situation) shoot a wide open 3?

I'm here to address this argument. My first thought was "no effing way Dwight Howard or any other center should ever get a look from 3." Luckily, I have data to make my opinion for me! Using Pro Basketball Reference's shot finder, I found the expected value of just the situation that Paul described. I limited it to all 3's taken in the first three quarters (because only Vinny Del Negro would run a play like this at the end of the game) of games last season, where there was 3 seconds or less left in the quarter. I also filtered by shots inside 30 feet to exclude half courters and other obviously low percentage shots.

A Case for Javale: Let the man shoot!

Below you will find an hour-long g-chat conversation about the strategy of having an NBA center take an end-of-quarter three pointer. It was based on thisvideo, but my conscience won’t let me post something that makes Javale look good, lest the casual reader see it and think he’s a good basketball player.  So I’m compelled to share thisother video with you as well. Enjoy.

Sent at 10:06 AM on Wednesday

Paul:  btw did you see javale's three and subsequent celebration last night

Sent at 11:14 AM on Wednesday

me:  hahaha no

i'll look it up

Paul:  boy was it funny

Sent at 11:23 AM on Wednesday

me:  haha what the eff was he doing?

also, that play was clearly just "it's the end of the quarter we're up 13 it's the regular season who gives two craps"

and finally...his form isnt terrible, right?

Paul:  apparently

at nevada, he was a 33% three-point shooter his last year

on a not-too-tiny 42 attempts

me:  yeah. he had a follow through at least?

he may make my "people i like to watch shoot" column

haha

Paul:  hahaha

he is actually shooting free throws better this year

honestly though ive always thought that was an underrated end of quarter play

who really has a better shot at making a 3

ray allen fading away from 27 feet with two guys contesting

or a completely wide open center

Sent at 11:29 AM on Wednesday

me:  ray allen